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        德國有望在今年迎來綠黨總理

        德國有望在今年迎來綠黨總理

        David Meyer 2021年04月23日
        在過去一個月中,綠黨的民調支持率一直穩定在20%或以上。

        德國的小型黨派并不打算為總理這種頂級職務提供候選人,因為它們最多也就只能夠寄希望于在任何一個“人民黨”(德國兩個最大的黨派基民盟和社民黨都稱自己是人民黨——譯注)所領導的聯合政府中,成為其執政伙伴。

        這也是為什么4月19日對綠黨(Greens/EFA)來說是一個重大的時刻,因為它宣布了首名總理候選人:安娜萊娜·貝爾伯克。貝爾伯克如今是德國總理安格拉·默克爾的唯一女性繼任候選人,而默克爾將在9月的聯邦選舉后退休。

        綠黨在前些年一直為聯邦政府效力。在默克爾的基民盟(Christian Democratic Union)于2005年上臺之前,綠黨連續兩屆都是格哈特·施羅德的中左翼社會民主黨(Social Democrats)的執政伙伴。然而,由于全國選票得票率不到9%,它們放棄了對執政黨的爭奪。

        如今,一切都發生了變化。

        在過去一個月中,綠黨的民調支持率一直穩定在20%或以上。隨著由基民盟和基社盟(Christian Social Union)——統稱為聯盟黨(Union)支持率的下降,綠黨的支持率應聲上漲。與此同時,當前在長期執政的“大聯合政府”擔任執政伙伴的社民黨,依然位居第三,與過去的兩年半相比毫無變化。

        4月19日,貝爾伯克在接受其作為如今據稱是德國“第三個人民黨”的總理候選人提名時表示:“我堅信,要度過這個全新的、充滿挑戰性的十年,德國需要開啟新的篇章?!?/p>

        綠黨在一份聲明中指出,在此次選舉中,是基民盟還是社民黨當選很難預知,這在歷史上尚屬首次。該聲明稱:“我們有機會成為德國最強大的政治力量?!?/p>

        不僅僅是抗議

        40歲的貝爾伯克僅比其與羅伯特·哈貝克共同執掌的黨派年輕11個月。

        在1980年綠黨成立之初,西德綠黨與當今充斥著全球政治格局的各大綠黨非常相似:它是堅定的環保主義者與和平主義者,支持大麻,反核。它曾經是一個邊緣黨派,由于與主流相距甚遠,有一段時間其黨派中甚至還存在過支持戀童癖的團體。不過,不得不提的是,親商的德國自民黨(Free Democratic Party)也曾經有過一些難以回首的歷史。

        自那之后發生了很多變化。1993年,綠黨與東德的聯盟90(Alliance 90)合并;即便到了今天,該黨派可能依然被稱為聯盟90/綠黨。五年后,該黨進入了政府,對一些人來說,這是一個令人醒悟的時刻。綠黨未能阻止德國參與科索沃沖突以及阿富汗侵略。盡管綠黨成功地啟動了核電廠的逐漸退出計劃,但其時間表要比很多激進分子所期待的更長。

        在離開政府之后,也就是默克爾2005年當選總理之際,綠黨不斷壯大自身在全國層面的力量。在16個德國聯邦州中,有11個與綠黨成立了聯合政府。綠黨甚至在巴登符騰堡新近成立的政府中占據了主導地位。

        這意味著角逐9月大選的綠黨在各個層面都有著大量的治理經驗。該黨不再像過去那樣對環境問題有專斷權,因為其崛起甚至促使聯盟黨加強了對這方面的重視。不過,綠黨在其他方面脫穎而出。例如,該黨是德國唯一支持放寬移民法的黨派,也就是讓人們在獲得德國公民權的同時無需放棄其他國籍。

        貝爾伯克的對手

        顯然,貝爾伯克并非是根正苗紅的總理候選人。她此前曾經是蹦床運動員(在德國錦標賽中曾經三次獲得銅牌),也曾經從事過記者工作,后來在漢堡和倫敦學習法律,并于2013年成為了德國議會議員。她沒有任何治理經驗,但她發起了清潔綠黨平臺,加速了煤的停用,并令人震驚地對高速公路強制實施了80英里/小時的速度限制。

        4月19日,貝爾伯克在一片歡呼聲中被作家、哲學家羅伯特·哈貝克任命為綠黨總理候選人。這種優雅、團結的場面本來不應該在德國民選中丟失,但在聯盟黨摩擦極端嚴重之時卻消失了。

        今年1月,現任北萊茵-威斯特法倫州州長的中立派議員阿明·拉謝特當選基民盟的領袖。通常來講,這意味著他成為該聯盟的總理候選人是十拿九穩的事情。然而,當前并非是正常時期。

        巴伐利亞基社盟(Bavarian CSU)的領袖馬庫斯·索德也有意競選總理,而且他拒絕放棄這個機會?;衩烁邔觾A向于中立派拉舍特,但更加有魅力的保守派索德(他的聲望因為在新冠疫情中對強硬抗疫舉措的支持有所上升)更受選民的青睞,而他自己也深知這一點?;缑舜饲皬奈闯晒ν瞥鲆幻偫砗蜻x人,但索德非常有競爭力,而且基民盟和基社盟如今可能不得不通過黨員投票來打破這個僵局。

        與此同時,社民黨的候選人是財政部部長奧拉夫·朔爾茨,在振奮人心方面,他倒算不上是一個糟糕透頂的人物,不過卻陷入了Wirecard公司的造假丑聞:監管機構未能發現這家已經破產的支付公司的會計違規,而這一切都發生在其任職期間,而且綠黨已經將此作為攻擊他的把柄。

        最近的投票顯示,如果拉舍特成為聯盟黨的候選人,那么在貝爾伯克、拉舍特和社民黨的朔爾茨之間,貝爾伯克的呼聲最高。然而,如果索德成為聯盟黨候選人,那么索德似乎比貝爾伯克更受公眾青睞。

        聯盟黨依然是人氣最高的黨派,而且我們有理由認為它依然會在下一屆聯合政府中扮演統治角色,而綠黨和自民黨可能會成為執政伙伴。(近些年對社民黨支持的崩塌與其未能在其與基民盟/基社盟的聯合政府中發揮作用有著很大的關系,因此,再次組建大聯合政府的可能性微乎其微。)

        不過,離選舉開始還有5個月的時間,而這段時期必將充滿動蕩。公眾對聯盟黨/自民黨政府處理疫情的不滿仍然在增長,并且基民盟的形象最近因為口罩采購丑聞而受損,有兩名立法人員被迫辭職。

        因此,可能發生的一種情形是,到今年年底,德國可能會出現由綠黨領導的聯合政府,其中還包括社民黨和另一個黨派,有可能是右翼自民黨或極左的左翼黨;即便在眼下,讓這兩個小黨派加入同一個聯合政府所需的重新調整可能比登天還難。(財富中文網)

        譯者:馮豐

        審校:夏林

        德國的小型黨派并不打算為總理這種頂級職務提供候選人,因為它們最多也就只能夠寄希望于在任何一個“人民黨”(德國兩個最大的黨派基民盟和社民黨都稱自己是人民黨——譯注)所領導的聯合政府中,成為其執政伙伴。

        這也是為什么4月19日對綠黨(Greens/EFA)來說是一個重大的時刻,因為它宣布了首名總理候選人:安娜萊娜·貝爾伯克。貝爾伯克如今是德國總理安格拉·默克爾的唯一女性繼任候選人,而默克爾將在9月的聯邦選舉后退休。

        綠黨在前些年一直為聯邦政府效力。在默克爾的基民盟(Christian Democratic Union)于2005年上臺之前,綠黨連續兩屆都是格哈特·施羅德的中左翼社會民主黨(Social Democrats)的執政伙伴。然而,由于全國選票得票率不到9%,它們放棄了對執政黨的爭奪。

        如今,一切都發生了變化。

        在過去一個月中,綠黨的民調支持率一直穩定在20%或以上。隨著由基民盟和基社盟(Christian Social Union)——統稱為聯盟黨(Union)支持率的下降,綠黨的支持率應聲上漲。與此同時,當前在長期執政的“大聯合政府”擔任執政伙伴的社民黨,依然位居第三,與過去的兩年半相比毫無變化。

        4月19日,貝爾伯克在接受其作為如今據稱是德國“第三個人民黨”的總理候選人提名時表示:“我堅信,要度過這個全新的、充滿挑戰性的十年,德國需要開啟新的篇章?!?/p>

        綠黨在一份聲明中指出,在此次選舉中,是基民盟還是社民黨當選很難預知,這在歷史上尚屬首次。該聲明稱:“我們有機會成為德國最強大的政治力量?!?/p>

        不僅僅是抗議

        40歲的貝爾伯克僅比其與羅伯特·哈貝克共同執掌的黨派年輕11個月。

        在1980年綠黨成立之初,西德綠黨與當今充斥著全球政治格局的各大綠黨非常相似:它是堅定的環保主義者與和平主義者,支持大麻,反核。它曾經是一個邊緣黨派,由于與主流相距甚遠,有一段時間其黨派中甚至還存在過支持戀童癖的團體。不過,不得不提的是,親商的德國自民黨(Free Democratic Party)也曾經有過一些難以回首的歷史。

        自那之后發生了很多變化。1993年,綠黨與東德的聯盟90(Alliance 90)合并;即便到了今天,該黨派可能依然被稱為聯盟90/綠黨。五年后,該黨進入了政府,對一些人來說,這是一個令人醒悟的時刻。綠黨未能阻止德國參與科索沃沖突以及阿富汗侵略。盡管綠黨成功地啟動了核電廠的逐漸退出計劃,但其時間表要比很多激進分子所期待的更長。

        在離開政府之后,也就是默克爾2005年當選總理之際,綠黨不斷壯大自身在全國層面的力量。在16個德國聯邦州中,有11個與綠黨成立了聯合政府。綠黨甚至在巴登符騰堡新近成立的政府中占據了主導地位。

        這意味著角逐9月大選的綠黨在各個層面都有著大量的治理經驗。該黨不再像過去那樣對環境問題有專斷權,因為其崛起甚至促使聯盟黨加強了對這方面的重視。不過,綠黨在其他方面脫穎而出。例如,該黨是德國唯一支持放寬移民法的黨派,也就是讓人們在獲得德國公民權的同時無需放棄其他國籍。

        貝爾伯克的對手

        顯然,貝爾伯克并非是根正苗紅的總理候選人。她此前曾經是蹦床運動員(在德國錦標賽中曾經三次獲得銅牌),也曾經從事過記者工作,后來在漢堡和倫敦學習法律,并于2013年成為了德國議會議員。她沒有任何治理經驗,但她發起了清潔綠黨平臺,加速了煤的停用,并令人震驚地對高速公路強制實施了80英里/小時的速度限制。

        4月19日,貝爾伯克在一片歡呼聲中被作家、哲學家羅伯特·哈貝克任命為綠黨總理候選人。這種優雅、團結的場面本來不應該在德國民選中丟失,但在聯盟黨摩擦極端嚴重之時卻消失了。

        今年1月,現任北萊茵-威斯特法倫州州長的中立派議員阿明·拉謝特當選基民盟的領袖。通常來講,這意味著他成為該聯盟的總理候選人是十拿九穩的事情。然而,當前并非是正常時期。

        巴伐利亞基社盟(Bavarian CSU)的領袖馬庫斯·索德也有意競選總理,而且他拒絕放棄這個機會?;衩烁邔觾A向于中立派拉舍特,但更加有魅力的保守派索德(他的聲望因為在新冠疫情中對強硬抗疫舉措的支持有所上升)更受選民的青睞,而他自己也深知這一點?;缑舜饲皬奈闯晒ν瞥鲆幻偫砗蜻x人,但索德非常有競爭力,而且基民盟和基社盟如今可能不得不通過黨員投票來打破這個僵局。

        與此同時,社民黨的候選人是財政部部長奧拉夫·朔爾茨,在振奮人心方面,他倒算不上是一個糟糕透頂的人物,不過卻陷入了Wirecard公司的造假丑聞:監管機構未能發現這家已經破產的支付公司的會計違規,而這一切都發生在其任職期間,而且綠黨已經將此作為攻擊他的把柄。

        最近的投票顯示,如果拉舍特成為聯盟黨的候選人,那么在貝爾伯克、拉舍特和社民黨的朔爾茨之間,貝爾伯克的呼聲最高。然而,如果索德成為聯盟黨候選人,那么索德似乎比貝爾伯克更受公眾青睞。

        聯盟黨依然是人氣最高的黨派,而且我們有理由認為它依然會在下一屆聯合政府中扮演統治角色,而綠黨和自民黨可能會成為執政伙伴。(近些年對社民黨支持的崩塌與其未能在其與基民盟/基社盟的聯合政府中發揮作用有著很大的關系,因此,再次組建大聯合政府的可能性微乎其微。)

        不過,離選舉開始還有5個月的時間,而這段時期必將充滿動蕩。公眾對聯盟黨/自民黨政府處理疫情的不滿仍然在增長,并且基民盟的形象最近因為口罩采購丑聞而受損,有兩名立法人員被迫辭職。

        因此,可能發生的一種情形是,到今年年底,德國可能會出現由綠黨領導的聯合政府,其中還包括社民黨和另一個黨派,有可能是右翼自民黨或極左的左翼黨;即便在眼下,讓這兩個小黨派加入同一個聯合政府所需的重新調整可能比登天還難。(財富中文網)

        譯者:馮豐

        審校:夏林

        Germany’s smaller parties don’t tend to field candidates for the top post of chancellor—a pointless gesture when the most they can hope for is a junior role in a coalition led by one of the two big Volksparteien, or “people’s parties.”

        That’s why it was a momentous occasion for the Greens to announce their first such candidate on April 19: Annalena Baerbock, who is now the only female candidate to succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is retiring after September’s federal election.

        The Greens have served in federal government in previous years. Before Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) took over in 2005, they were junior partners to Gerhard Schr?der’s center-left Social Democrats (SPD) for two terms. But with less than 9% of the national vote, they didn’t pretend to have a shot at the top spot.

        That’s all changed now.

        For the past month, the Greens have been polling solidly at 20% or more, their fortunes climbing amid ebbing support for the CDU and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU)—collectively known as “Union.” Meanwhile, the SPD, which is currently the junior partner in a long-running “Grand Coalition” with Union, remains stuck in third place, as it has been for the past two and a half years.

        “I am thoroughly convinced that this country needs a fresh start to get through this new, challenging decade,” Baerbock said on April 19, accepting her nomination as the face of what is now arguably Germany’s third Volkspartei.

        In a statement, the party noted that this election will be the first in which a CDU or SPD chancellor is not a foregone conclusion. “We have the chance to become the strongest political force in Germany,” it said.

        Beyond protest

        At the age of 40, Baerbock is only slightly younger—by 11 months—than the party she steers along with co-leader Robert Habeck.

        At their formation back in 1980, the West German Greens were much like the Green parties that dot the global political landscape today: strongly environmentalist and pacifist, pro-cannabis and anti-nuclear. It was a fringe party, so distant from the mainstream that it tolerated a pro-pedophilia faction in its ranks for years (though it should be noted that the pro-business Free Democratic Party also has some uncomfortable history there).

        A lot has changed. In 1993, the Greens merged with East Germany’s Alliance 90; even today, they are properly known as Alliance 90/The Greens. Five years later, they found themselves in government, and for some it was disillusionment time. The Greens were unable to stop Germany’s participation in the Kosovo conflict and the invasion of Afghanistan. And while they did manage to kick-start the gradual phaseout of nuclear power, the timetable was longer than many activists had hoped for.

        After leaving government when Merkel came to power in 2005, the Greens went on to build up a strong presence at the state level. Of the 16 German L?nder, 11 have coalition governments with Greens in them, and the party even led the most recent administration in the state of Baden-Württemberg.

        That means the Green Party contesting September’s election is one with plenty of governing experience at all levels. It no longer has the monopoly on environmental issues that it once did—the rise of the Greens has prompted even Union to step up on that front—but it has become a standout in other ways. For example, the Greens are the only major German party to support liberalization of immigration laws so people could gain German citizenship without forfeiting their other citizenships.

        Baerbock’s foes

        Baerbock is certainly no traditional candidate for the chancellery. A former trampolinist (who won bronze three times in the German championships) and journalist, she went on to study law in Hamburg and London, before becoming a member of the German parliament in 2013. She does not have any governing experience, but she has pushed for a clear Green platform that would accelerate the phaseout of coal and—shock horror—impose an 80 mph speed limit on the autobahn.

        On April 19, Baerbock was enthusiastically endorsed as the Green candidate by Habeck, a writer and philosopher. This show of grace and unity will not have been lost on the German voting populace, coming as it did during an extremely fractious moment for Union.

        In January, the centrist Armin Laschet—currently the state premier of North Rhine–Westphalia—became leader of the CDU. Ordinarily, that would mean he’s a shoo-in to be the Union candidate. But these are not ordinary times.

        Markus S?der, the leader of the Bavarian CSU, would also like to be chancellor, and he refuses to let go of the possibility. CDU party grandees favor the centrist, Merkel-esque Laschet, but the far more charismatic and conservative S?der—whose profile has risen during the pandemic, owing to his backing of tough measures—is more popular with voters, and he knows it. The CSU has never successfully fielded a candidate for chancellor before, but S?der is game, and the CDU and CSU may now have to poll their memberships to break the impasse.

        Meanwhile, the SPD’s candidate is Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, who is not a terribly inspiring figure and who also finds himself caught up in the Wirecard fraud scandal: The regulatory failures that missed the now-collapsed payment firm’s accounting irregularities happened under his watch, and the Greens are using this to attack him.

        Recent polling suggests that if Laschet were to become the Union candidate, Baerbock would be the most popular choice among herself, Laschet, and the SPD’s Scholz. However, it also seems that S?der would prove more popular with the public than Baerbock, if he became the Union candidate.

        Union is still the most popular party, and the smart money would still be on its heading up the next governing coalition, perhaps with the Greens and the FDP as junior partners. (The collapse in support for SPD over recent years has much to do with its failure to exert influence in its coalitions with the CDU/CSU, so yet another Grand Coalition seems extremely unlikely.)

        However, there are still five months to go before the election, and it’s certain to be a volatile period. Public dissatisfaction with the Union/SPD government’s handling of the pandemic continues to grow, and the CDU has recently been damaged by mask procurement scandals that forced the resignation of two of its lawmakers.

        So it is possible that, by the end of this year, Germany could end up with a Green-led coalition that also features the SPD and another party, perhaps the right-wing FDP or the far-left Left; the realignment needed to get both those smaller parties into the same coalition would probably be too extraordinary even for these times.

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