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        美國關店潮遠未結束,預計到2026年將達8萬家

        美國關店潮遠未結束,預計到2026年將達8萬家

        PHIL WAHBA 2021年04月07日
        該預測所依據的假設是:屆時,電商銷售額在零售總額中的占比將從目前的18%(已比預期高出幾個百分點)躍升至27%。

        過去幾年,美國零售商已宣布關閉了無數家門店,目前關店潮仍在持續。在周一發布的一份研究報告中,瑞銀(UBS)預測,到2026年,美國還將有8萬家零售店永久關閉,約占目前零售店總數的9%。

        該預測所依據的假設是:屆時,電商銷售額在零售總額中的占比將從目前的18%(已比預期高出幾個百分點)躍升至27%。

        “此次新冠疫情有一個持久影響,即網絡普及率急劇上升,”零售業股票分析師邁克爾?拉瑟在一份為客戶出具的長達94頁的研究報告中寫道?!拔覀冾A計,這一趨勢仍將持續,并將會推動零售店進一步合理布局?!?/p>

        一些大型零售商的財報證實了拉瑟的說法。諾德斯特龍 (Nordstrom)在假期季度的線上銷售額占其銷售總額的54%,而梅西百貨(Macy's)則為44%。蓋璞集團(Gap Inc.)表示,最近一個財年,電商業務占比近一半。說到蓋璞,該公司在新冠疫情引起的動蕩期間關閉了其多家連鎖店,因為其預計至少有一半業務很快就會永久性地轉到線上。

        瑞銀預測,服裝零售商關閉的門店將最多,約21,000家,其中多數在室內購物中心。(此次關店潮對大型商場的零售商并無太大影響。)

        其次是8,000家消費類電子產品門店,以及7,000家家具門店。這兩類產品的銷售額總體呈增長態勢,但線上銷售增長遠高于零售門店。疫情期間的大贏家百思買(Best Buy)最近宣布,將縮減其門店的銷售區,以便為電商業務提供更多空間。

        塔吉特(Target)和沃爾瑪(Walmart)等大型百貨零售商并未關閉商店,部分原因是他們已經全面調整了其實體店位置,既便于線上訂單的配送,又便于買家取貨。

        2019年,零售企業破產及門店關閉數量創下紀錄,共有9,832家門店關閉,之后,關店潮仍在繼續。2020年,有8,741家門店關閉,到目前為止,2021年已有3,169家門店關閉。但又有數千家新店開業,標志著零售業革新的開始。開設新店的零售商包括一元店(dollar stores)等連鎖店,以及在大型商場內設有門店的一些品牌零售商,包括迪克體育用品(Dick’s Sporting Goods),美妝連鎖店Ulta Beauty等等。(財富中文網)

        翻譯:郝秀

        審校:汪皓

        過去幾年,美國零售商已宣布關閉了無數家門店,目前關店潮仍在持續。在周一發布的一份研究報告中,瑞銀(UBS)預測,到2026年,美國還將有8萬家零售店永久關閉,約占目前零售店總數的9%。

        該預測所依據的假設是:屆時,電商銷售額在零售總額中的占比將從目前的18%(已比預期高出幾個百分點)躍升至27%。

        “此次新冠疫情有一個持久影響,即網絡普及率急劇上升,”零售業股票分析師邁克爾?拉瑟在一份為客戶出具的長達94頁的研究報告中寫道?!拔覀冾A計,這一趨勢仍將持續,并將會推動零售店進一步合理布局?!?/p>

        一些大型零售商的財報證實了拉瑟的說法。諾德斯特龍 (Nordstrom)在假期季度的線上銷售額占其銷售總額的54%,而梅西百貨(Macy's)則為44%。蓋璞集團(Gap Inc.)表示,最近一個財年,電商業務占比近一半。說到蓋璞,該公司在新冠疫情引起的動蕩期間關閉了其多家連鎖店,因為其預計至少有一半業務很快就會永久性地轉到線上。

        瑞銀預測,服裝零售商關閉的門店將最多,約21,000家,其中多數在室內購物中心。(此次關店潮對大型商場的零售商并無太大影響。)

        其次是8,000家消費類電子產品門店,以及7,000家家具門店。這兩類產品的銷售額總體呈增長態勢,但線上銷售增長遠高于零售門店。疫情期間的大贏家百思買(Best Buy)最近宣布,將縮減其門店的銷售區,以便為電商業務提供更多空間。

        塔吉特(Target)和沃爾瑪(Walmart)等大型百貨零售商并未關閉商店,部分原因是他們已經全面調整了其實體店位置,既便于線上訂單的配送,又便于買家取貨。

        2019年,零售企業破產及門店關閉數量創下紀錄,共有9,832家門店關閉,之后,關店潮仍在繼續。2020年,有8,741家門店關閉,到目前為止,2021年已有3,169家門店關閉。但又有數千家新店開業,標志著零售業革新的開始。開設新店的零售商包括一元店(dollar stores)等連鎖店,以及在大型商場內設有門店的一些品牌零售商,包括迪克體育用品(Dick’s Sporting Goods),美妝連鎖店Ulta Beauty等等。(財富中文網)

        翻譯:郝秀

        審校:汪皓

        Even though the past few years have brought countless announcements of store closings, U.S. retailers should brace for much more to come. In a research note published on Monday, UBS forecast that some 80,000 retail stores, or roughly 9% of the current total, will shut their doors permanently by 2026.

        The forecast is based on the assumption that e-commerce as a percentage of total retail sales jumps to 27%—up from 18% now, which is already several percentage points higher than had been expected by this time.

        “An enduring legacy of the pandemic is that online penetration rose sharply,” retail equity analyst Michael Lasser writes in the 94-page research note to clients. “We expect that it will continue to increase, which will drive further rationalization of retail stores.”

        Financial results from some major retailers support Lasser’s assertion. Nordstrom got 54% of its sales online in the holiday quarter, while Macy’s generated 44% that way. Gap Inc. said e-commerce represented nearly half its business in its most recent fiscal year. Speaking of Gap, the company took advantage of the COVID-19 turmoil to close many stores in its namesake chain, betting that at least half of the brand’s business will soon move online for good.

        UBS predicted that apparel retailers would account for the biggest chunk of store closings, with 21,000 of the total, much of that happening in indoor shopping malls. (Retailers in strip malls have been largely shielded from the recent carnage.)

        Next are consumer electronics with 8,000 likely-to-close locations, and home furnishings with 7,000. Both those categories are growing overall but seeing a faster proportion of their sales go online than retail in general. Best Buy, a big winner during the pandemic, recently announced it would shrink some of the sales floors at its stores so that more space could be used for servicing e-commerce orders.

        General merchandise big-box retailers like Target and Walmart are not closing stores, in part because they have overhauled their physical locations to enable filling online orders and letting shoppers retrieve orders there.

        While 2019 was the high-water mark for U.S. closings, with 9,832 during a record year for retail bankruptcies, they have continued since then. After 8,741 closings last year, some 3,169 have shuttered so far in 2021. But in a sign of retail’s reinvention, several thousand new locations have opened. Chains that have added stores include dollar stores and some brands that are fixtures in strip malls, including Dick’s Sporting Goods and Ulta Beauty.

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